The Most Chaotic College Football Teams of 2024
CHAOS SCORE EXPLAINED
Unpredictability
- 1 point for every dollar you’d win by betting $10 on the underdog (for example a 4–1 underdog is worth 40 points)
- 1 point for the difference between the spread and actual margin of victory (cannot exceed 25 points)
- 1 point for every percentage point above 50 if the “wrong” team won according to Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy. For example, if the losing team had a postgame win expectancy of 95% that equals 45 points)
Close Games
- 1 point for the highest win probability the eventual losing team had at any point in the 4th quarter or overtime. If the eventual losing team held a 95% win probability at some point in the 4th quarter (according to ESPN), it’s worth 95 points. If the game 35–0 after 3 quarters, that’s worth 0 points.
- I’m calling this the “It’s so over, we’re so back!” bonus. A bonus 10 points is added if at some point during the 4th quarter held the lead, then lost the lead, and then still won the game. Ties don’t count here, a team must experience being ahead, then fall behind, and still finish on top.
- If the above-mentioned bonus does not apply, a bonus 5 points is added for games that go to overtime
Other Bonuses
- Mutual Turnovers: A bonus 5 points for every turnover achieved by both teams. If one team turned it over 5 times, but the other team was 0, that counts for nothing. If both sides each turn it over 3 times, that’s exactly the chaos we’re looking for it and it adds 15 bonus points (this happened 18 times in 2024)
- Night Games: A small amount of bonus points for late night kickoffs. Watching an insanely crazy game is even more delirious to experience if it ends well beyond midnight east coast time. +1 point for a 9pm eastern kick, +3 points for 10pm, and +5 points for 11pm or later start times (looking at you Hawaii)
- High/Low Scoring Bonuses: 5,10, or 20 bonus points added if it was one of the highest or lowest scoring games of the year. An absurd lack of offense or defense adds to the chaos. The highest scoring FBS game of the year belongs to James Madison over North Carolina by a score of 70 to 50. The lowest scoring contest was Sam Houston State over Louisiana Tech, by a score of 9 to 3. Sam Houston State was also able to defeat Florida International 10 to 7.
The following rankings include conference championship games. Any teams that played more or less than 12 games had their points adjusted.
MOST CONSISTENTLY WRONG SPREADS
5. Houston (Spread was off by an average 16.5 points)
4. Tulane (Spread was off by an average 16.9 points)
3. James Madison (Spread was off by an average 17.4 points)
2. Arizona (Spread was off by an average 18.3 points)
- Navy (Spread was off by an average 18.6 points & off by 15+ points in 11 out of 12 games)
MOST CONSISTENTLY ACCURATE SPREADS
5. Georgia Tech (Spread was off by an average 6.8 points)
4. Colorado State (Spread was off by an average 6.5 points)
3. San Diego State (Spread was off by an average 6.3 points)
2. Duke (Spread was off by an average 6.2 points)
1.Wake Forest (Spread was off by an average 4.7 points & was within 10 points in 10 out of 12 games)
TEAMS WHERE THE FAVORITE WON IN EVERY GAME
Indiana
Southern Miss
Penn State
Boise State
Colorado State
MOST INCONSISTENT TEAMS
5. Georgia State
Won as underdog against Texas State (+23) and Vanderbilt (+8.5)
Lost as favorite against Georgia Southern (-3.5), Old Dominion (-3), Arkansas State (-3), and Coastal Carolina (-1)
Betting $10 on the underdog in every game would net you $115 in profit
4. Alabama
Won as underdog against Georgia (+1.5)
Lost as favorite against Vanderbilt (-23.5), Oklahoma (-14), and Tennessee (-3.5)
Betting $10 on the underdog in every game would net you $103 in profit
3. Texas State
Was the favorite in literally every single game… but went 7–5 with losses to Georgia State (-23), Sam Houston State (-11.5), Old Dominion (-10.5), Louisiana (-4.5), Arizona State (-3)
Betting $10 on the underdog in every game would net you $124 in profit
2. Vanderbilt
Won as underdog against Alabama (+23.5), Virginia Tech (+13), Kentucky (+12.5), and Auburn (+8.5)
Lost as favorite against Georgia State (-8.5)
Betting $10 on the underdog in every game would net you $172 in profit
- Northern Illinois
Won as underdog against Notre Dame (+27.5), and Bowling Green (+3)
Lost as favorite against Ball State (-13.5), Buffalo (-13), and Toledo (-3)
Betting $10 on the underdog in every game would net you $198 in profit
TURNOVER CHAOS KING: SAN JOSE STATE
The Spartans both forced and coughed up a turnover in 11 of their 12 games. They also had 3 games that featured 3 turnovers by each team.
BROKEN SCOREBOARD LEGENDS
Most bonus points from games with crazy high/low final scores
New Mexico: Won games by scores of 52–37, 50–40, and 50–45. Lost games by scores of 61–39, 49–45, and 17–6.
Texas Tech: Won games by scores of 66–21, 56–48, and 52–51. Lost game by score of 59–35.
Louisiana Tech: Won games by scores of 14–10 and 12–7. Lost games by scores of 17–10 and 9–3!
CLOSEST GAMES
5.Louisiana Tech
4.Kansas
3.Duke
2.Washington State (3 of their 4 losses came in games where they had at least a 89% win probability… they Couged it. Came from behind in 4 of their 8 wins)
1.USC (4 of their 6 losses came in games where they had at least 90% win probability… a true masterclass in choking. They also came from behind to defeat UCLA and LSU.)
As we finally crown college football’s kings of chaos, a reminder that the final score a blending of two categories, the most shocking outcomes (spreads being wrong and underdogs winning) and craziest games (close scores and all the other bonus points)
MOST BORING TEAMS
5.Army
4.Southern Miss
3.Mississippi State
2.Indiana
1.Kent State
MOST CHAOTIC TEAMS
Honorable Mentions: Northern Illinois (#3 in shocking outcomes), Texas State (#2 in shocking outcomes), New Mexico (#10 in crazy games), NC State (#9 in crazy games), Duke (#7 in crazy games), San Jose State (#3 in crazy games)
10. Florida International (#34 in shocking outcomes, #12 in crazy games)
9. Wyoming (#19 in shocking outcomes, #15 in crazy games)
8. Louisiana Tech (#60 in shocking outcomes, #5 in crazy games)
7. Kansas (#37 in shocking outcomes, #8 in crazy games)
6. Liberty (#15 in shocking outcomes, #11 in crazy games)
5. Texas Tech (#25 in shocking outcomes, #6 in crazy games)
4. Stanford (#35 in shocking outcomes, #4 in crazy games)
3. USC (#95 in shocking outcomes, #2 in crazy games)
2. Vanderbilt (#1 in shocking outcomes, #19 in crazy games)
1.Washington State (#11 in shocking outcomes, #1 in crazy games)
Want to take a stroll down memory lane? I also wrote about the wildest games of 2024!
The Most Chaotic College Football Games of 2024 | by Michael Strite | Dec, 2024 | Medium
