The Most Chaotic College Football Games of 2024

What a wonderful year full of upsets in the world of college football. I’ve gone through every single game, and developed a new metric, in search of crowning this year’s king of chaos. I wrote a separate article celebrating the most unpredictable teams, but let’s also unpack the most earth-shattering and unexplainable upsets of the year.

The Most Chaotic College Football Teams of 2024 | by Michael Strite | Jan, 2025 | Medium

Let’s introduce you to Chaos Score.

CHAOS SCORE EXPLAINED

Unpredictability

• 1 point for every dollar you’d win by betting $10 on the underdog (for example a 4–1 underdog is worth 40 points)
• 1 point for the difference between the spread and actual margin of victory (cannot exceed 25 points)
• 1 point for every percentage point above 50 if the “wrong” team won according to Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy. For example, if the losing team had a postgame win expectancy of 95% that equals 45 points)

Close Games

• 1 point for the highest win probability the eventual losing team had at any point in the 4th quarter or overtime. If the eventual losing team held a 95% win probability at some point in the 4th quarter (according to ESPN), it’s worth 95 points. If the game 35–0 after 3 quarters, that’s worth 0 points.
• I’m calling this the “It’s so over, we’re so back!” bonus. A bonus 10 points is added if at some point during the 4th quarter held the lead, then lost the lead, and then still won the game. Ties don’t count here, a team must experience being ahead, then fall behind, and still finish on top.
• If the above-mentioned bonus does not apply, a bonus 5 points is added for games that go to overtime

Other Bonuses

• Mutual Turnovers: A bonus 5 points for every turnover achieved by both teams. If one team turned it over 5 times, but the other team was 0, that counts for nothing. If both sides each turn it over 3 times, that’s exactly the chaos we’re looking for it and it adds 15 bonus points (this happened 18 times in 2024)
• Night Games: A small amount of bonus points for late night kickoffs. Watching an insanely crazy game is even more delirious to experience if it ends well beyond midnight east coast time. +1 point for a 9pm eastern kick, +3 points for 10pm, and +5 points for 11pm or later start times (looking at you Hawaii)
• High/Low Scoring Bonuses: 5,10, or 20 bonus points added if it was one of the highest or lowest scoring games of the year. An absurd lack of offense or defense adds to the chaos. The highest scoring FBS game of the year belongs to James Madison over North Carolina by a score of 70 to 50. The lowest scoring contest was Sam Houston State over Louisiana Tech, by a score of 9 to 3. Sam Houston State was also able to defeat Florida International 10 to 7.

BIGGEST UPSETS OF THE YEAR

September 28th: Kentucky defeats Ole Miss 20–17 ($10 bet would earn $54.50)

October 4th: Houston defeats TCU 30–19 ($10 bet would earn $57)

November 30th: Wyoming defeats Washington State 15–14 ($10 bet would earn $64)

September 2nd: Boston College defeats Florida State 28–13 ($10 bet would earn $65)

November 30th: Michigan defeats Ohio State 13–10 ($10 bet would earn $87)

November 16th: Stanford defeats Louisville 38–35 ($10 bet would earn $90)

November 23rd: Georgia State defeats Texas State 52–44 ($10 bet would earn $98.30)

October 5th: Vanderbilt defeats Alabama 40–35 ($10 bet would earn $110)

October 23rd: Kennesaw State defeats Liberty 27–24 ($10 bet would earn $120)

September 7th: Northern Illinois defeats Notre Dame 16–14 ($10 bet would earn $160)

MOST IMPROBABLE WINS OF THE YEAR

November 9th: Jacksonville State defeats Louisiana Tech

At the start of the 4th quarter, Jax St trailed 30–28, but still held a 41% chance to win. Late in the game, they trailed 37–31, and it came down to a hail mary from 49 yards away. At this point, the win probability was at 1%, possibly even lower because of incomplete play-by-play data. They cashed in on the hail mary, but missed the PAT, sending the game to overtime at 37–37. The Gamecocks won in overtime 44–37.

October 19th: Iowa State defeats UCF

Near the end of the 3rd quarter, the Cyclones scored a touchdown that would have tied the game, but the PAT was blocked, so they trailed 28–27 heading into the 4th. UCF scored a TD, and Iowa State answered with a field goal, putting them behind 35–30. With 2:10 left, UCF had pushed the ball into Cyclone territory. All they needed was a first down to seal the game, and Iowa State’s win probability was down to 1%. The Cyclones forced the punt, marched down the field on 11 plays, and scored the game winning touchdown to win 37–35.

September 28th: Central Michigan defeats San Diego State

Central Michigan only trailed 21–19 after 3 quarters and held the Aztecs scoreless for the entire 2nd half. With 2:17 remaining, San Diego State got an interception and ran it all the way back to the CMU 11-yard-line. A touchdown would ice the game. Even if they didn’t score, CMU would have to burn their timeouts. ESPN had the Chippewas win probability at 1%. San Diego State ran the ball 3 times (burning 2 timeouts and 2-minute warning) and then MISSED a 28-yard field goal. With 1 timeout and 1:56 remaining, Central Michigan moved down the field and set up a game winning 46-yard field goal.

August 31st: Arkansas State defeats Central Arkansas

Things were actually looking great for the Red Wolves, as they jumped ahead 27–10 early in the 4th quarter. At this point Arkansas State had a 98.9% win probability of their own. Oh how the tables turned, as their FCS opponents score 21 unanswered points. The Red Wolves now trailed 31–27, needing a touchdown with 55 seconds left, on their own 30 yard line, with 2 timeouts. Win probability was around 1%. They won on a 7-yard touchdown pass with 3 seconds left. This scare propelled them to an impressive 8–5 season.

September 14th: Pittsburgh defeats West Virginia

How about a legendary comeback against your hated rival? The game was tied 24–24 after 3 quarters but West Virginia kicked a field goal and followed it up with a touchdown to put themselves ahead 34–24. Pittsburgh was moving down the field but suffered back-to-back holding penalties. This left them down 10 points, just 3:06 remaining, with 2nd & 30 on the Mountaineers 40-yard-line. Their win probability was at 1%. They bombed a 40-yard touchdown on the very next play. The Panthers forced a 3-and-out, then went 77 yards to score another touchdown and win in regulation 38–34.

October 18th: BYU defeats Oklahoma State

BYU led 28–21 after 3 quarters and then it was a wild 4th quarter. An Oklahoma St touchdown tied it at 28. BYU jumped back into the lead 31–28 after a 41-yard field goal. Oklahoma State put together an insane drive lasting over 8 minutes and took a 35–31 lead with 1:13 left. The Cougars needed to drive down the field and had only a 3.1% win probability. With 42 seconds left, BYU was faced with a 4th and 7. This dropped them to only 0.8% win probability. They cashed in with an 8-yard pass on 4th down and went down the field to score the touchdown they needed, winning 38–35. This one also kicked off at 10:15pm EST, so you had to stay up real late to see the insane finish. It also kept BYU’s undefeated season and playoff hopes alive.

October 19th: Eastern Michigan defeats Central Michigan

Central Michigan is on the wrong side of this one after showing up earlier in the list. That’s because they scored early in the 4th quarter to take a 34–16 lead over the Eagles. A few plays later and Eastern Michigan found itself with just a 0.7% win probability. Here’s how the next few drives went — TOUCHDOWN EMU, PUNT, TOUCHDOWN EMU, PUNT. Now the Eagles were only down 34–31 with 3:52 left. Eastern Michigan later found itself with a 4th and goal on the 1-yard-line. Rather than kicking the field to push the game into overtime, they made the right decision and slammed it into the endzone, finishing off a 38–34 win. How about that for a rivalry game comeback.

October 5th: Miami defeats California

The week before, Miami ripped off a 10 point comeback to avoid an upset against Virginia Tech. They found themselves in big trouble on the road against California. A field goal early in the 4th quarter pushed California’s lead to 38–18. Just like the previous game on this list, the Hurricanes would have to rattle off 3 straight touchdowns in the span of 14 minutes. What made this game special was just how many times it felt like Miami’s season came down to 1 play. With 12 minutes left, down 38–18, they were faced with a 4th and 6 at midfield. The win probability was down to 0.7%. They converted and scored the touchdown a few plays later. With 5:35, they now had a 4th and 10 near midfield. They again converted and followed up with another touchdown. After all these heroics, they still trailed 38–32. After an impressive punt, Miami was stuck on their own 8-yard-line with 1:28 remaining. The very first play of the drive was a 77-yard pass to flip the script. Just as the tides were turning, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty killed Miami’s momentum. With 37 seconds left, the Hurricanes had 3rd and 20 on the 25-yard-line. 3 plays later and the comeback was finally complete, and Miami won 39–38. You could make a strong argument that the Hurricanes benefitted tremendously from the zebras both during this game and the week prior. The irony is, in an alternate universe Miami loses this game in embarrassing fashion, but the loss galvanizes the squad, helping them win the ACC title and reach the playoff. Would losing to Cal in this game and beating Syracuse at the very end of the season change what the committee thought about their 10–2 resume?

September 21st: Colorado defeats Baylor

Let’s talk about my favorite game of the year, and the quintessential Heisman Moment for Travis Hunter before America even gave him a chance. After 3 quarters the game was tied 24–24. Baylor scored a touchdown with 5:43 left to lead 31–24. Colorado lost 21 yards on a pair of sacks and were forced to punt from their own 4 yard line. Baylor returned it to the 26. With 2:19 left, Baylor lined up for a 45-yard field goal that would have the iced the game. It missed. Colorado started moving down the field but a sack and penalty gave them a 2nd & 24 on their own 31. Two plays later they were faced with 4th and 1. After converting the 4th and 1, they were still 43 yards away from the endzone with 13 seconds left. After a hail mary pass was dropped by a Colorado receiver, the Buffaloes had 1 last chance to gain 43 yards. At this point win probability was down to 0.7%. They converted the hail mary, sending the game to overtime at 31–31. They followed up by scoring a touchdown to begin overtime. Baylor responded quickly and got to 1st & Goal on the 2. Inches away from tying up the game, Travis Hunter forces a fumble at the goal line, ending the game. On the other side of the ball, Hunter had 7 catches for 130 yards. The combination of the missed field goal, the dropped hail mary, successful hail mary, and then walk-off forced fumble made it my personal favorite game of the year.

September 20th: Washington State defeats San Jose State

How special that the day before on Friday night, we had another incredible finish! Bonus points for a 10pm kickoff and some good ole Pac-2 After Dark in Pullman. San Jose State exploded with 3 touchdowns in the 3rd quarter, jumping ahead 38–24. At this point the Cougars had a 12.5% chance of winning. They responded with 19 unasnwered points of their own, jumping ahead 43–38. A missed PAT and failed 2PT conversion gave them just a 5-point lead with 5 minutes left. Win probability swung all the way back to 90%. The Spartans charged all the way down the field, scoring with 26 seconds left, and hitting the 2PT conversion to lead 46–43. One play later, the Cougars were still on their 25 yard line, with only 15 seconds left. At this point, win probability had fallen to 0.1%. Washington State hit a 32-yard pass, and an 8-yard QB scramble, setting up a 52-year field goal. Dean Janikowski blasted it through, tying the game at 46–46. San Jose State threw an interception on the second play of overtime. All the Cougars had to do was run 3 times and kick a field goal to win. Instead, they threw an interception of their own! In the 2nd overtime, Washington State made up for the mistake with a touchdown and 2-point conversion. San Jose State matched it with a touchdown of their own, but the 2-point conversion failed. Deep into the night, the Cougars walked away with a 54–52 win.

October 12th: Georgia Southern defeats Marshall

If you were a fan of Georgia Southern, this game felt like it was over until literally the final minute. Marshall led 16–3 at halftime, and then 23–3 after the 3rd quarter. GSU had a 1.1% chance of winning at the start of the quarter. Half of the quarter passed with no change to the score, and win probability dropped to 0.1%. This game couldn’t possibly be more over. The attendance was listed at 24,048, and I’m sure many fans already went home. The Eagles quickly put together a safety and touchdown, but a failed 2-point conversion kept them behind 23–11. After taking 53 minutes to score their first TD, they would now have to score 2 more times. Both sides punted and then Marshall took over with 4 minutes left. They fumbled it away. Georgia Southern quickly found themselves in 3rd & 4. Win probability had once again fallen to 0.1%. 4 plays later they were in the endzone but still trailed 23–18. The onside kick failed, and Marshall took over with 2:15 left, needing only a first down to win. A few plays later they fumbled it away for the second drive in a row. After everything that happened, the Eagles still needed to gain 66 yards in less than two minutes. A few plays later they faced 3rd & 17 but converted. Turns out they needed half the time they were given to score, hitting a 34-yard touchdown pass with 1 minute left. After a failed two point conversion, they led 24–23. Marshall put the nail in the coffin with an interception, their third turnover in a row. A truly earth-shattering comeback. Funny enough, Marshall was a 1.5-point underdog, so they still covered the spread.

October 26th: Tulsa defeats UTSA

Something I find interesting about all the games above, is many of the eventual winners were great teams. In most cases, the pre-game favorite was the team pulling off the comeback. This one is special because Tulsa was 2–5 at the time, and a 9.5-point underdog. Nothing about the Golden Hurricane’s season up to this point made you think they could pull this off. After 3 quarters, UTSA led 42–24. Win probability for Tulsa was at 4.2%. Tulsa actually started the quarter with a touchdown and a succesful 2-point conversion to make it 42–32. After a pair of punts, UTSA marched down the field and bled the clock, kicking a field with 5:21 left to extend their lead to 45–32. Tulsa would have to find the endzone twice in the span of 5 minutes. On the very next play, a holding penalty pushed them back to 1st & 20. Win probability was down 0.1%. Two plays later, they were faced with 3rd & 7. The Golden Hurricane converted and started moving down the field. They scored a touchdown with 2:26 left to cut the lead down to 45–39. UTSA just needed a first down to end the game. They went 3 and out and punted. Tulsa was pinned on their own 8-yard line with 1 timeout and 1:55 left. On the first play of the drive, the QB was sacked and fumbled it. Tulsa recovered the fumble but were now on their own 5-yard line. The next 5 plays saw 3 completed passes of 20+ yards. Suddenly it was 1st & Goal on the 4. Tulsa scores the touchdown with 1:01 left. UTSA actually moved the ball 25 yards on the first play, getting to midfield, before throwing 4 incomplete passes. Tulsa wins 46–45 in front of the home fans. At the time of writing, the winners of the games above finished the season at 93–40. Winning in this fashion is typically the sign of a great team. After this one, both Tulsa and UTSA were 3–5. Tulsa went on to lose the next 4 games, 3 of them blowouts, and finish 3–9. UTSA went on a 3-game winning streak, finished 6–6, and dominated the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

MOST CHAOTIC GAMES OF 2024

November 2nd: Texas Tech defeats Iowa State 23–22

Spread difference: 14.5 points (Iowa State was a 13.5 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 39.5 points

Close Game: 95.5 points (Iowa State had a 95.5% chance to win with 1:45 remaining in the game)

“It’s so over… We’re so back” Bonus: 10 points

Mutual Turnovers Bonus: 10 points (2 turnovers by each team)

TOTAL POINTS: 169.5

September 28th: Old Dominion defeats Bowling Green 30–27

Spread Difference: 13.5 points (Bowling Green was a 10.5 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 33 points

Close Game: 90.9 points (Bowling Green had a 90.9% chance to win with 1:50 remaining in the game)

Postgame Expected Win Probability: 26 points (Bowling Green had a 76% postgame win expectancy)

“It’s so over… We’re so back” Bonus: 10 points

TOTAL POINTS: 173.4

November 23rd: Oregon State defeats Washington State 41–38

Spread Difference: 13.5 points (Washington State was a 10.5 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 33.2 points

Close Game: 92.5 points (Washington State had a 92.5% chance to win with 3:39 left in the game)

Postgame Expected Win Probability: 24.4 points (Washington State had a 74.4% postgame win expectancy)

“It’s so over… We’re so back” Bonus: 10 points

Mutual Turnover Bonus: 10 points (2 turnovers by each team)

TOTAL POINTS: 183.6

November 30th: Michigan defeats Ohio State 13–10

Spread Difference: 22.5 points (Ohio State was a 19.5 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 87 points (6th biggest upset of the year)

Close Game: 55 points (Ohio State still had a 55% chance to win midway through the 4th quarter)

Weird Score Bonus: 10 points (one of the lowest scoring games of the year)

Mutual Turnover Bonus: 10 points (2 turnovers by each team)

TOTAL POINTS: 184.5

November 30th: Wyoming defeats Washington State 15–14

Spread Difference: 19 points (Washington State was an 18 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 64 points (8th biggest upset of the year)

Close Game: 93.3 (Washington State had a 93.3% chance of winning with 1:38 left in the game)

Mutual Turnover Bonus: 10 points (2 turnovers by WSU, 3 turnovers by Wyoming)

TOTAL POINTS: 186.3

September 28th: Kentucky defeats Ole Miss 20–17

Spread Difference: 18 points (Ole Miss was a 15 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 54.5 points (10th biggest upset of the year)

Close Game: 93.4 points (Ole Miss had a 93.4% win probability with 4:04 remaining)

Postgame Expected Win Probability: 26.1 points (Ole Miss had a 76.1% postgame win expectancy)

TOTAL POINTS: 192

October 23rd: Kennesaw State defeats Liberty 27–24

Spread Difference: 25 points (Liberty was a 27 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 120 points (2nd biggest upset of the year)

Close Game: 37.5 points (Liberty had a 37.5% chance to win during the 4th quarter)

Postgame Expected Win Probability: 18.7 points (Liberty had a 68.7% postgame win expectancy)

TOTAL POINTS: 201.2 points

October 5th: Vanderbilt defeats Alabama 40–35

Spread Difference: 25 points (Alabama was a 23.5 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 110 points (3rd biggest upset of the year)

Close Game: 49.3 points (Alabama had a 49.3% chance to win during the 4th quarter)

Postgame Expected Win Probability: 48.6 points (Alabama had a 98.6% postgame win expectancy)

TOTAL POINTS: 232.9 points

November 16th: Stanford defeats Louisville 38–35

Spread Difference: 24 points (Louisville was a 21 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 90 points (5th biggest upset of the year)

Close Game: 98.7 points (Louisville had a 98.7% chance to win with 6:50 left in the game)

Postgame Expected Win Probability: 40.8 points (Louisville had a 90.8% postgame win expectancy)

Mutual Turnover Bonus: 5 points (both teams had 1 turnover each)

TOTAL POINTS: 258.5

September 7th: Northern Illinois defeats Notre Dame 16–14

Spread Difference: 25 points (Notre Dame was a 27.5 point favorite)

Underdog Moneyline: 160 points (Biggest upset of the year)

Close Game: 80.3 points (Notre Dame had an 80.3% chance to win with 6:39 left in the game)

Postgame Expected Win Probability: 3.9 points (Notre Dame had a 53.9% postgame win expectancy)

TOTAL POINTS: 269.2

This list is heavily weighted by the most shocking upsets of the year, but let’s say you didn’t care about the expectations of what was “supposed to happen” according to the spread, and all you wanted was the most chaotic games. In a world where all we care about the insanity that unfolds over 4 quarters, and not the magnitude of the upset, here are the top 5 most chaotic games of 2024.

September 7th: Oklahoma State defeats Arkansas 39–31

September 20th: Washington State defeats San Jose State 54–52

November 12th: Buffalo defeats Ball State 51–48

November 16th: Stanford defeats Louisville 38–35

November 21st: Georgia Tech defeats NC State 30–29